An Early Election for Lebanon

It seems with 170 plus dead and 5000 injured following the mega blast in the Beirut port on August the 4th 2020, the prime minister of Lebanon has accepted to have early parliamentary elections in two months. Early elections should be welcomed by most Lebanese. As they had been protesting in the streets against the corruption of their government since October the 17^th 2019. However, to truly make a difference, several things need to be done before getting to the elections.

To start with, there should be ample time for the opposition to gather themselves into a political party and run for office. Two months is not enough for that. Five to seven months is a more reasonable timeframe.

Then, an electoral law that can best translate the will of the people should be drafted. Ever since the liberation of Lebanon from the Syrian occupation in 2005 - in fact, ever since the end of the civil war, if not before -  the Lebanese electoral laws were based on the gerrymandering of districts to make sure that certain politicians remain in power or can get to power. In 2017, the last electoral law to be voted and accepted by all parliamentary blocks and upon which the 2018 elections were ran was no different. It made sure that the ruling class maintains itself.

What is needed in Lebanon is a law that translates the will of most Lebanese. Firstly, most Lebanese live outside of Lebanon. The 2017 electoral laws allowed them to vote, and so should the next law.

Secondly, and more importantly, the electoral law should be free of gerrymandering and be majoritarian with proportional representation. The alliance or party that should emerge after the election should have a clear mandate to rule on account that most electors voted for them. At the same time, a small party, which represents say 5% of the vote, should have 5% of the seats. As such, the demand of the Shiite community for years has been a proportional electoral system with Lebanon as a single district. Their calculus is that because their constituents vote as a single block for the Hizballah and Amal alliance and because they are the largest sect, they will get the most seats. So be it.

Being a Lebanese member of the Maronite catholic minority and an expat living in Canada, I for one welcome this kind of law.

The new government that will be formed post-election will face some exceedingly difficult choices. It will either fully immerse Lebanon in the Iranian stream of western opposition (as the current government has been doing) or will disarm Hizballah and potentially make peace with Israel. As such, it needs to have full representational legitimacy in front of the Lebanese people. Simply, it should represent most Lebanese. What is the worst that can happen? We discover that 60% of Lebanese are Shiites, and they want Hizballah? So be it. Minorities can find their way out of Lebanon. Immigration is not that hard. But I believe that most Lebanese will not want Hizballah.

It might be a big bet in a country where polls are not allowed, but I believe most Lebanese will vote for an anti-Hizballah political alliance. And when that alliance takes power, they will have the full legitimacy to disarm them.

The problem with the Lebanese political system has always been its legitimacy because it never implemented majority rule. We were supposed to be run by consensus, and this has resulted in a vested corrupt class of kleptocrats who have ruined the country and the economy. And who are indirectly if not immediately responsible for the deadly explosions in the port of Beirut.  Time to let the majority speak. The silent majority will be silent no more.

I will also add one last thing, in this upcoming election, Hassan Nasrallah should run as the leader of the pro-Hizballah party. He should not let minions do his bidding. It should be clear what this election is about.